Royal Caribbean Blog

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. announced it has scheduled a conference call with investors to discuss its first quarter results and provide a business update.

The call is scheduled for 10am Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, May 20, 2020.

The call will be available on-line at the company's investor relations website, www.rclinvestor.com.

To listen to the call by phone, please dial (877) 663-9606 in the US and Canada.  International phone calls should be made to (706) 758-4628. 

An American biotech company announced its coronavirus vaccine resulted in positive interim clinical data in its first human safety tests.

Moderna published the results of its vaccine candidate against novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), from the Phase 1 study led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

These results have not been published in a scientific journal and are only a first step toward showing the experimental vaccine is safe and effective.

The results show an increased level of antibodies in the 8 patients given various dose levels that matched the levels of antibodies blood samples from people who have recovered from COVID-19.

The vaccine, known as mRNA-1273, was generally safe and well tolerated. The only side effect was in one patient where there was redness around the injection site.   

"With today’s positive interim Phase 1 data and the positive data in the mouse challenge model, the Moderna team continues to focus on moving as fast as safely possible to start our pivotal Phase 3 study in July and, if successful, file a BLA," said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer at Moderna. "We are investing to scale up manufacturing so we can maximize the number of doses we can produce to help protect as many people as we can from SARS-CoV-2."

Countries and private companies around the world are in a race to create a working vaccine, and the U.S. is aiming to have hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine broadly available by the end of the year.

The cruise industry has been especially hard hit by COVID-19, and the result has been ships not sailing since March and tremendous financial losses.

A vaccine is widely seen as a key step to restoring consumer confidence that going on a cruise, as well as various other aspects of daily life, is safe. Meanwhile, over 75% of cruise fans are willing to return to a cruise even without a vaccine.

Royal Caribbean currently has cancelled all sailings until at least June 12.

While it looks like the majority of repeat cruisers are willing to hop on their Royal Caribbean cruise as soon as they resume, you might be feeling a little hesitant and want to push back your vacation plans.

If you want to postpone your cruise vacation and give yourself more time to see how things around the world progress, here are the two easy ways to delay that cruise.

Cancel and get a Future Cruise Credit

If there is a silver lining to the current situation, it is that it has never been easier to cancel a cruise.

Royal Caribbean has come up with very flexible terms, with the option to cancel and get a 100% Future Cruise Credit up to 48 hours before your ship is scheduled to sail.

Known as the "Cruise with Confidence" program, Royal Caribbean will allow anyone to cancel their cruise up to 2 days before departure date and get a credit good for 12 months or more..

Once you have the credit, you can then apply it towards a future sailing. The Cruise with Confidence program applies to existing bookings and new ones made by August 1, 2020.

It is important to note that the vast majority of guests have reported long waits to get a Future Cruise Credit. Waiting 30 days is not uncommon, and closer to the norm.

Why get a FCC: If you are unsure when you want to rebook, or need flexibility in what you are going to rebook, this is the option for you.

Lift & Shift

More recently, Royal Caribbean introduced the concept of Lift & Shift, where you can push your existing reservation ahead by one year.

This is a simpler method for delaying a vacation by a year, provided you are able to meet all of these requirements for your 2021 cruise:

• Same itinerary type
• Same sailing length
• Same stateroom category
• New booking within the same 4-week period of their original cruise date same-time-next-year

You do not need to book the same ship or even class of ships.

Not only will this make the booking easier to move, but Royal Caribbean will protect your original price and promotional offering.  So the price you paid for that 2020 cruise will be exactly what you pay for 2021.

To be eligible, guests must move their booking on or before August 1, 2020.

Why Lift & Shift: If you take vacations around the same time every year, and want to punt on 2020, this is a very easy way to move it and keep your pricing intact.

Why you might want to wait to cancel

If these two options sound appealing, there is one more thing to consider: what happens if Royal Caribbean cancels on you.

In the event Royal Caribbean cancels your cruise, they have offered more lucrative terms to guests, including 125% Future Cruise Credits and/or 125% for onboard purchases previously made. 

Moreover, if you cancel and/or Lift & Shift, you no longer qualify for whatever the cruise line offers if they later cancel your original sailing.

Waiting for Royal Caribbean to cancel is a gamble, since they may not actually cancel the cruise you booked. Not to mention any related travel expenses (airfare, hotels, etc) are your responsibility to book and manage their cancellations.

Be sure to pay attention to when programs like Lift & Shift or the Cruise with Confidence program expire, as these are temporary options Royal Caribbean is offering, with no guarantee they will be extended.

More helpful posts

Here are a few other additional articles I think are helpful for those dealing with cruising during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Royal Caribbean Cancellations - Updates, Refunds & FAQs
• Royal Caribbean Lift and Shift information FAQs
• How to request a refund for your cancelled Royal Caribbean cruise
• Royal Caribbean Future Cruise Credit: What you need to know

The majority of Royal Caribbean fans say they will go on a cruise before there is a vaccine available that would protect from from COVID-19.

In a poll of likely Royal Caribbean cruisers, 75% of those surveyed said they would go on a cruise without a proven vaccine in place.

Only 7% responded they would not, and a further 17% were unsure what they would do.

More than 250 likely cruisers answered this survey. The majority hailed from the United States, but there were respondents from other regions of the world as well, including Australia and Europe.

With many states beginning to lift restrictions aimed at enforcing social distancing, the question of life returning to "normal" in all aspects raises concerns across the board.

Cruisers want to cruise

You may not find it surprising that most cruise fans that visit a Royal Caribbean fan site would be willing to cruise, but this demographic is going to be critical to any cruise line once sailings resume again.

When Royal Caribbean starts sailing again, many analysts and travel experts expect some level of trepidation to return to sailing. As a result, cruise loyalists will be the cruise line's bread and butter for filling rooms and getting revenue flowing again.

Many of the people that responded to the poll felt strongly about the return of cruising and their desire to get back onboard.

Perhaps more surprising in the poll comments was not that many were willing to cruise again without a vaccine, but that these same people were less interested in sailing if going on a cruise meant wearing a mask.

"Frankly I'm not worried about Covid-19, but what does worry me is the onboard experience. I won't go on a cruise if a face mask is required onboard, that doesn't sound like vacation."
 

"Not concerned about a vaccine, my deciding factor will be what the "new" onboard experience is."

Those that responded they would not go on a cruise shared concern not over what they are doing to protect themselves, but what others are not doing.

"I don't get it, who wants to be sick if you don't have to be? Since so many people fail to grasp what they do affects others, I am going to need a vaccine. A vaccine will ease their burden of stupidity, so someone can disregarding my personal space by taking a selfie, but I can have piece of mind."
 

"The odds of a single contact involving the virus are small, assuming independent events and random exposure.  However, the probability of being exposed to the virus after several hundred contacts approaches certainty.  Just do the math, and you will see.  So we will all be exposed at some point.  I won't cruise until my wife and I feel it is safe -- that we can mitigate the risk, or have access to effective treatment, or have access to a vaccine.  This is still a virus the kills healthy people without underlying conditions."

Your thoughts

Will you go on a cruise before there is a COVID-19 vaccine? Would special rules or regulations that require social distancing and/or masks onboard turn you off from cruising again? Share your thoughts and concerns in the comments.

There is a brand new photo of the construction progress being made on Royal Caribbean's next cruise ship, Odyssey of the Seas.

The photo is from the Meyer Werft shipyard in Papenburg, Germany. Odyssey is under construction in Hall 6.

Periodically, new photos of the construction progress are released by the shipyard.

In the last couple weeks, Royal Caribbean warned Odyssey's scheduled debut later this year could be delayed due to the health crisis impacting the shipyard operations.

Royal Caribbean International President & CEO Michael Bayley provided an update last week on what to expect.

"We are working on that with the yard. Everything was on schedule. There have been delays because of obviously there has a lot going on around the world, and it impacted the shipyard at the same time. Our newbuild organization is deep in project discussion now with the yard itself. We don't have any definite dates yet. I would hope in the coming weeks we will have something firmed up."

"I think there may be some delays, but we're working through it as a team to try and figure that out."

Odyssey of the Seas will be the cruise line's second Quantum Ultra Class ship, and will sail from Port Everglades, Florida.

Royal Caribbean's next virtual cruise experience begins today with the next "sailing" of Virtual of the Seas.

Kicking off on Facebook, this week's sailing will head to the pink sand beaches of Bermuda, and is hosted by Cruise Director Abe Hughes.

The concept of a virtual cruise is every day, Mr. Hughes posts on Facebook various activities, photos and even a Cruise Compass for helping to pass the time while many of us are stuck at home.

The activity started out as a fun excuse to talk Royal Caribbean, but has taken on a life of its own with so many cruise fans clamoring for some virtual fun wherever they can get it.

You can follow along each day on Abe Hughes' Facebook page.

If you are looking for a good sign of things return back to normal, Italy announced it will start allowing some tourists back on June 3, 2020.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte presented a plan to open both its regional and international borders on June 3, with the government eliminating a 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving from abroad.

Italy was especially hard hit with the global health crisis, and represents an epicenter of European cruising. Italy has had the most deaths from the disease after the United States and Great Britain.

Bars and restaurants in Italy will reopen on Monday, and people will no longer have to justify travel within their own region and will be able to meet friends as well as family.

Gyms, swimming pools and sports centres will reopen on May 25, while theatres and cinemas can reopen from June 15.

Cruises in and around Italy

Prior to the outbreak, Royal Caribbean had quite a variety of sailings planned to, from, and around Italy.

Explorer of the Seas and Jewel of the Seas are/were scheduled to sail out of Rome (Civitavecchia).

Explorer of the Seas was to offer cruises to the Greek Isles, Western Mediterranean and even a Holy Land cruise. Jewel of the Seas was to offer a 12-night holy land cruise.

Rhapsody of the Seas was scheduled to sail out of Venice, and offer 6-, 7-, and 8-night cruises to Greece, Croatia and the Greek isles.

In addition, a number of other Royal Caribbean ships had stops scheduled in Italy.

Stay up-to-date with all the Royal Caribbean news from this week with our roundup of all this week's news.

Royal Caribbean International President and CEO Michael Bayley spoke on a variety of topics this week related to the cruise line's return to service.

Among the many questions, Mr. Bayley indicated he believes there may not be a Windjammer buffet in the beginning.

"I think in the beginning, there will not be a buffet in the beginning, that's how I see it. It depends again upon the timing. We will utilize the space, we will utilize the Windjammer, but in all probability it won't be a classical buffet. It will be something more akin to a restaurant."

Royal Caribbean News

• Allure of the Seas will begin her delayed refurbishment this weekend.
• A Wall Street analyst estimated how long Royal Caribbean can last without any revenue.
• Everything you need to know about Lift & Shift.
• How to take advantage of Royal Caribbean's Best Price Guarantee option to reprice cruises.
• A new set of photo packages is available to pre-purchase.
• The port project in Freeport, Bahamas is still a go.
• Royal Caribbean hired new Washington DC lobbyists.
• Did you know Royal Caribbean used to distribute passenger lists?
• Eight lessons I learned by cruising with kids.
• This is now the longest we have gone without Royal Caribbean canceling more cruises.

Royal Caribbean Blog Podcast

The 354th episode of the Royal Caribbean Blog Podcast is now available, that features Brent's first Royal Caribbean cruise.

Brent had cruised with Celebrity Cruises for a while, but decided to give Royal Caribbean a try in order to take advantage of all the great family activities. He shares what coming to Royal Caribbean was like, and how the sister brands compare.

Please feel free to subscribe via iTunes or RSS, and head over to rate and review the podcast on iTunes if you can! We’d appreciate it.

Royal Caribbean Cancellations

Do you have questions about if Royal Caribbean will cancel more cruises and what happens if their cruise is included?

There is plenty of concern out there, and I have a breakdown of everything you need to know about what happens (and has happened) when Royal Caribbean cancels more cruises.

There is plenty of doubt about the future of cruising, and what to expect if your Royal Caribbean cruise is cancelled, but this guide will explain everything that happens should it happen to you.

It looks like Royal Caribbean has refreshed its onboard photo packages you can purchase online.

A few RoyalCaribbeanBlog readers noticed a new set of photo packages that include a set amount of prints or digital copies.

Thanks to Thomas Bissland for providing this screenshots

In addition, the unlimited photo package seems to have disappeared from the offerings.

Photo packages allow guests to take home a select amount of photos taken onboard their Royal Caribbean ship. One photo package covers all guests in your stateroom.

With there being no Royal Caribbean cruises sailing, it is no secret there is little to no revenue coming in and the company is losing money every month.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd stated that its average ongoing ship operating expenses and administrative expenses is approximately $250 million to $275 million per month during the suspension of operations.  

This range of monthly expenditures  includes ongoing ship operating expenses, administrative expenses, and debt service expense, hedging costs, expected necessary capital expenditures (net of committed financings in the case of newbuilds) and excludes cash refunds of customer deposits as well as cash inflows from new and existing bookings. 

So the natural question is how long can Royal Caribbean last without any meaningful revenue?

Bank of America analysts Andrew Didora and Geoffrey d’Halluin ran an analysis of the major cruise lines to determine an answer to that question.

Mr. Didora estimated that Royal Caribbean has roughly $3.45 billion in liquidity, but he estimates it is costing the cruise line around $330 million in cash per month to operate without revenue.

Thus, Mr. Didora thinks Royal Caribbean can operate through the first quarter of 2021 with no cruises sailing.

"For RCL to extend its liquidity into late 2021 to further de-risk its liquidity profile, we estimate it would need to raise an incremental $1.5-2.0B in capital"

While I am no Wall Street analyst by any means, it is worth noting Mr. Didora's cash burn per month differs from the value Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd announced last week.

In addition, Royal Caribbean indicated it may seek to further reduce its average monthly requirement, "under a prolonged non-revenue scenario."

In order to cut costs, the cruise giant  identified approximately $3.0 billion and $1.4 billion of capital expenditure reductions or deferrals in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

If it deems it necessary, Royal Caribbean has outlined it could opt for further reductions in capital expenditures, operating expenses and administrative costs and additional financing.