The one dominant question in the cruise industry is when will cruise ships be able to sail again.

Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain spoke to CNBC following his company's fourth quarter 2020 earnings call about a variety of topics, but when cruises might restart was the primary concern.

While Royal Caribbean Group reported another billion dollar loss, they were quite pleased with strong demand for cruises in the second half of 2021 and into 2022.

CNBC Global Markets Reporter Seema Mody put it bluntly when she said, "all the demand in the world is no help. Richard, if the industry is not given the clearance from the CDC."

Mr. Fain pointed to restarting cruises will take a lot, and both the cruise industry and the CDC are looking at a variety of factors before cruises can restart.

"We just we're in the midst of a huge surge...over the end of last year," Mr. Fain explained. "Nobody was going to suggest that we start operating in that kind of environment."

"But as that's coming down, as the numbers get better, as the prevalence in society gets better, as the vaccine gets out there more, I think that's when we can start having serious conversations to restart."

Read more: Royal Caribbean expecting CDC's technical instructions "any day"

So where is that point, exactly?

Mr. Fain said there is no single percentage or data point to look for, "I think the CDC, and we ourselves and our healthy sales panel, would say no one statistic is the determining factor."

"Unfortunately, there's no one magic threshold that says, 'now is the day. If we reach this point, we can go.'"

Read more: Royal Caribbean talks vaccine impact, Cruises to Europe in 2021, Cuba and more

Passengers worst fear: infection or isolated?

Richard Fain also talked about the distinction between passengers fearing getting infected versus being stuck on a cruise ship as the result of a case.

"People aren't so much worried about getting sick on a ship, they're worried that somebody else gets sick and that that destroys their whole vacation.

"That's why the protocols that we've come up with, a big focus of them, is how do we isolate cases when we have a case because there will be cases on the ship just as there are always cases in society. Our job is to make sure that it stays cases and doesn't become an outbreak."

"That's a lot of our discussion with the with the CDC and others, and that the vaccines are a big part of that."

Can Royal Caribbean borrow even more money?

Seema Mody ended the interview by asking Richard Fain does Royal Caribbean have more resources to borrow if the shutdown continues.

"We have a quiver of things full of actions we could take if we needed."

"We have been methodical about this and always looking fairly far out so that we're not dealing with an imminent issue. We always want to be dealing with if something goes wrong, we have time to fix it."

"And in this case, we've built up enough of our liquidity. We've built up enough of our ammunition so that we have the luxury of not having to deal with the crisis, but to gradually improve our liquidity, our financial health, because we want to get back to investment grade as quickly as we can."

Royal Caribbean held an hour long meeting with Wall Street investors that touched on topics ranging from what the vaccine rollout is doing to help bookings and protocols, booking trends, Cuba cruises and much more.

Financial analysts asked Royal Caribbean Group executives a myriad of questions surrounding their near- and long-term futures that provided interesting insight into what they are seeing and expecting right now.

Here is a breakdown of some of the most interesting anecdotes to come out of the call.

Cruising in a vaccine world

One major change since the last earnings call with investors is the role of the Covid vaccine.  It has gone from theoretical to beginning widespread distribution, and it has fundamentally changed how Royal Caribbean and governments seen cruise ships restarting.

When Royal Caribbean Group produced their 74 recommendations for cruise ships to restart sailings safely, it was crafted without vaccines in mind, but the world is changing.

Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain sees early 2021 as an interim period, where the vaccines are still relatively new.

"They're coming out amazingly quickly, but it still is going to take months to get huge numbers of people vaccinated."

Neither the cruise lines or governments have answers yet on how effective the vaccines are, and what effect they will have on the populous, but Mr. Fain is optimistic based on the results of Israel, where a speedy rollout has spurred a quick return to normalcy.

"We think that the vaccine is, of course, the ultimate weapon and the fact that it is coming out and beginning to come out so quickly and that the pace of that is growing will be a basis for a new set of of approaches."

Mr. Fain admitted no one knows yet what those new vaccine-bolstered protocols will look like.

Read more: Royal Caribbean adds COVID-19 into cruise contract for all passengers

What will cruises in Europe be like 2021?

A lot of attention has been placed with the CDC and cruise lines in North America, but what about cruises to Europe where American regulations do not apply?

Royal Caribbean International President and CEO Michael Bayley confirmed that while their sailings in Europe are not subject to the CDC jurisdiction, he believes they will be guided by the protocols coming from either the Healthy Sail Panel, European Union, or U.K.

"We know that the operations in some of the European countries, particularly Germany, Italy, have been ongoing for the past couple of month... and those protocols that have government operations have basically been based on the Healthy Sail Panel or the CLIA member policies, and then overlaid with specific instructions by the National Health Authority."

"I think what we're going to see is very similar to what we're going to see in the United States, which is as we continue to see infections decline and vaccines increase, then we're going to move to protocols that probably are some kind of hybrid between vaccines and testing."

"We imagine that they'll be very similar to the guidelines that we'll get from the CDC."

Read more: Royal Caribbean expecting CDC's technical instructions "any day"

Correlation between vaccine distributions & new bookings

Perhaps nothing has been more beneficial to Royal Caribbean's bottom line or overall morale than the rollout of Covid vaccines.

Mr. Bayley noted almost as soon as vaccines got approval, bookings jumped, "One of the things that we've seen really after we came out of the holidays early in January, is a proportional increase in the number of guests booking who were 65 plus, and that is continue to increase."

"Our belief is, is that 65 plus are getting vaccinated, then they're obviously becoming more comfortable with booking, and we're seeing that very much in our bookings from about January forward."

"As the vaccine spreads down into the population by age, we'll see that probably accelerate."

Royal Caribbean Group Chief Financial Officer Jason Liberty added that while experienced cruisers have been the backbone for bookings since the shutdown, there has been more recently an increase in new cruisers booking around the same timeframe Mr. Bayely talked about.

"As the vaccines are being rolled out, we're seeing that there's a pretty strong relationship to booking volumes and and vaccines."

"What we have seen more recently, though, it's not back to where it was pretty Covid, there has been an increase in first two crews coming back into the space."

"It's also building confidence that we're getting closer to the other side of this and people are beginning to realize that that travel should be here sooner rather than later."

98% of crew members in favor of getting vaccinated

Royal Caribbean recently announced it plans to get all of its crew members vaccinated, and that has overwhelmingly been met with positivity by the crew.

Mr. Bayley said Royal Caribbean sent out a survey to all of their crew members last week, which totals around 70,000 employees.

Of the 32,000 responses they got within 12 hours, 98% of all of the crew who responded they were in favor of being required to get the Covid vaccine in order to work.

"We also learned that over 4000 of our crew have already been vaccinated at home."

"I think we are very encouraged by the results."

Read more: It looks like Royal Caribbean will vaccinate its crew members

There is at least one ship that can still go to Cuba

As soon as Royal Caribbean announced Majesty of the Seas and Empress of the Seas would be sold, there was immediate concern there would not be a ship capable of going to Cuba if that ever re-opened.

Michael Bayley was equally concerned when the news came there was a buyer.

"We do have a ship, ships, that will fit into into Cuba if that should come back."

He did not specify which vessel that was.

Read more: Royal Caribbean sold two smaller cruise ships with enormous legacies

Will they sell more cruise ships?

Could Royal Caribbean sell more cruise ships? It depends on the opportunity.

Jason Liberty said Royal Caribbean will remain "opportunistic".

"I think we need to remember that pre-pandemic, all of these ships generated quite a bit of cash flow."

"For us typically to test on on a ship is a little bit less about the cash that we would receive; It's more strategic on whether we think this ship, whether it's in its current state or through some moderate investment, fits our brands."

Cruise lines could finally get the critical information they need from the U.S. Center for Disease Control Control (CDC) to get test cruises going.

During Royal Caribbean Group's fourth quarter 2020 earnings call with investors, Royal Caribbean International President and CEO Michael Bayley gave an update on where things stand with the CDC.

Mr. Bayley said that Royal Caribbean has been in "regular communication" with the CDC and expects to get technical instructions on what each ship needs to do in order to prepare itself for test cruises.

"We're literally expecting the technical specifications any day soon," Mr. Bayley told investors.

When the CDC lifted the No Sail Order at the end of October and replaced it with the Framework for Conditional Sail Order, the CDC outlined a series of steps required for cruises to be able to progress towards restarting.

Cruise lines are still waiting for those instructions.

Read more: Everything you need to know about Royal Caribbean test cruises

"It's an intergovernmental process between several agencies within the government that are reviewing the technical specifications."

"But they've assured us as soon as all of these things come together, they want to get us back into operations. So we're just literally waiting."

With dropping infection rates, Royal Caribbean sees higher optimism for test cruises to begin.

"We're waiting and, you know, hopefully we'll get them soon and we can we can start a trial sailings."

The fact all cruise lines are still waiting for technical instructions from the CDC came up in January when Carnival Corp. CEO Arnold Donald told investors during an earnings call that they were still waiting on additional guidelines from the CDC for future phases.

In early February, the CDC confirmed to RoyalCaribbeanBlog that the agency had still not delivered those instructions to cruise lines, but was coming soon.

"We anticipate the next phase of technical instructions (Technical Instructions for Port and Local Health Authorities Agreements) to be released in the next few weeks."

Working with the CDC

The nature of Royal Caribbean's relationship with the CDC also came up during the call, as many in the public point out the different approach the CDC has taken with cruise lines versus other sectors of travel.

Mr. Bayley characterized the discussions with the CDC as "productive".

"They're dealing with an incredibly challenging situation and environment."

"They've assured us on several occasions that when these indicators really start to move in a very positive way, then they'll start working with us to get us back into operation. And that's exactly what we're seeing now."

"My sense is, is that we're getting closer and closer to good news."

In terms of getting a sense of what the CDC or cruise lines are looking for in these statistics, there are still unknowns, but Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain pointed to factors such as how quickly the vaccine continues to roll out, or how the Covid variants will affect numbers going forward.

"I think it's premature for them, or for us, to try and speculate on what threshold the number has to be, because it's so many variables."

"I think we're more encouraged to see the really dramatic drop that we've been experiencing and the really nice roll out, particularly in the United States, in the U.K., in the in the vaccine."

Perhaps no other question has been asked as often over the course of the last year as the likelihood of their cruise actually sailing.

Every week I pull a popular question that RoyalCaribbeanBlog readers have been asking to help everyone who might be wondering the same thing.

I have a cruise booked for October 2021 on Harmony of the Seas. What are the chances this cruise will be able to sail? - Rick T.

Rick's question can be expanded to almost any sailing booked this year (or even in 2022), because after a year of no cruises and plenty of cancellations, it's difficult to know when cruises will be able to restart.

Unfortunately for Rick, and anyone else wondering the same thing, there is no answer. 

Nobody knows with any kind of accuracy.

Why is it so difficult to know when cruises might restart?

Essentially, there is not enough information to make any kind of predictions that are not purely random guesses.

We learned earlier this month that the U.S. Center for Disease Control Control (CDC) has not delivered to the cruise lines yet the technical instructions on what each ship needs to do in order to prepare itself for test cruises.

This is a major hurdle for Royal Caribbean to begin implementing new health protocols on its cruise ships and conduct test sailings.

It is generally believed that before any cruise ship can sail again, test sailings need to occur and be validated by CDC observers.  At that point, a cruise line can apply for conditional approval to resume sailings.

Other than canceling upcoming cruises a month at a time, Royal Caribbean has not provided any outlook or prediction on when sailings might restart.

In fact, Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain told travel agents earlier this month he says no one yet knows for certain when cruises will resume en masse.

"My answer is consistently, I don't know. But more recently, my answer has been, I don't know, but that's the good direction to be going in."

Time is on your side

The best answer to Rick's question on the chances his sailing will occur, is to say the further out your cruise is, the higher the likelihood of it occurring.

Right now, the world is in a race to distribute vaccines to help bring down the number of cases that are contributing to there being a public health emergency.

The further out you go into 2021, the more time pharmaceutical companies and governments have to produce and distribute vaccines to the population.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ and Royal Caribbean Group’s Healthy Sail Panel, said as soon as the end of March the vaccine may be widely available to residents of the United States.

Dr. Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

Of course, there are lots of conflicting predictions on when "herd immunity" may become a reality, but even conservative estimates put widespread vaccine distribution in the summer. 

All of this means cruises scheduled for summer 2021 and beyond certainly appear to have a higher chance of occurring.

What signs to look for when cruises might restart?

Besides Royal Caribbean actually announcing a firm restart plan, there are likely to be indications things are moving in the direction of cruises being able to restart.

Rehiring crew members is always a positive sign that cruise lines are thinking they want to do something to get closer to restarted. There have been times over the last year when crew were hired, then cancelled their plans to come back, so it is not always a firm indicator.

The best sign will be when test sailings can commence.  In order to get approval to sail, all cruise lines need to demonstrate to the CDC that new health protocols can work.

Test cruises are simulated sailings with mostly cruise line employees onboard pretending to be guests.  Travel agents are also likely to be on at least some of those sailings.

Any test sailings are a very good sign of what to expect.

In addition, comments from cruise line executives may provide context in the next few weeks and months of the direction things are going.

More mailbag questions:

• Why do I have to pay gratuities for my toddler?
• Should I make final payment for my cruise?
• What's worth paying extra for on a cruise?

The biggest cruise line yet has announced it will require its passengers onboard to have a Covid-19 vaccine in order to sail.

Luxury cruise line Crystal Cruises announced one of its new health protocols is to require the Covid-19 vaccine of guests.

A few other smaller cruise lines made similar announcement, but Crystal is arguably the most notable cruise line yet to do so.

Guests must be fully inoculated with a Covid-19 vaccine (with both doses if recommended by the manufacturer) at least 14 days prior to boarding any Crystal ship and will be asked to provide proof of vaccination before embarkation. 

Passengers sailing on Crystal will be required to take precautionary steps that includes negative Covid-19 tests for both guests and crew, reduced capacity, social distancing, nimble mask requirements, health screening questionnaires and more. 

Crystal admits right now when everyone can get the vaccine remains to be seen, but they believe by the time they are ready to restart operations in May or June, there will be sufficient time for guests to be vaccinated.

If someone is unable to be fully inoculated in time, Crystal says guests booked on 2021 voyages (except those booked on the Advance Purchase Savings program) have the option to move to a later departure date or cancel up until 60 days prior to first service without penalty. 

Verified documentation of vaccination and negative Covid-19 test will be required at the time of boarding in English, and failure to provide this documentation will result in denial of boarding. 

On the subject of children, Crystal recognizes that the vaccines are currently only approved for people 18 years or older. Regardless, the cruise line is unable to accommodate anyone, no matter what age, who has not been vaccinated. 

In addition to passengers, crew members will also be expected to be vaccinated.

Crew members are required to be tested for Covid-19 prior to leaving their home location to join the ship and must receive a negative result; they also will take a COVID-19 test at embarkation; quarantine for seven days upon arrival; and take a test at the end of that seven-day period and must receive a negative result, before beginning their duties. When vaccines are widely available, they will be a requirement of employment at least 14 days prior to service.

While Crystal will require the vaccine of guests and crew, testing before, during, and after the cruise is still required of everyone. Many governments - including the United States - and certain airlines require proof of negative Covid-19 test no more than three days before entry or flight departure, regardless of vaccination status.

Crystal is not the first cruise line to require the vaccine, but it is the most notable line thus far. 

Saga Cruises became the first cruise line to require the Covid-19 vaccine when it announced the requirement in January 2021. Thus far, only small cruise lines have required vaccines of guests.

Royal Caribbean has only committed to requiring the vaccine of crew members, but has not made any decision related to requiring it of passengers.

Industry expert Stewart Chiron thought Crystal's new policy was "premature" based on his post on Twitter.

After a year of Royal Caribbean cancelling cruises due to the global health crisis, is there a pattern to when they cancel sailings?

There are plenty of theories out there that the announcements come on Fridays, or after 5pm, or before calls with travel agents, but it is not clear if there really is any kind of pattern.

I wanted to determine if Royal Caribbean follows any sort of pattern when it cancels its cruises by looking at the past cancellation notices and trying to determine if there is truly a "method to the madness" of cancellations.

Read more: The unconfirmed cruise ship rumors that get repeated a lot by cruise fans

To accomplish this, I looked back at past RoyalCaribbeanBlog.com posts about the cancellations.  I always posted them very soon after Royal Caribbean made the announcement to cancel, so it is an easy way to get a sense of when the cruises were cancelled, as well as how many days before the scheduled sailing was to begin.

• June 20201
  • Cancelled Tuesday, April 6 at 2pm
  • 56 days before first sailing
• May 2021
  • Cancelled Tuesday, March 9, 2021 at 10am
  • 53 days before first sailing
• March/April 2021
  • Cancelled Tuesday, January 12, 2021 at 9am
  • 48 days before first sailing
• January/February 2021
  • Cancelled Wednesday, December 2, 2020 at 11am
  • 61 days before first sailing
• December 2020
  • Cancelled Monday, November 2, 2020 at 4pm
  • 29 days before first sailing
• November 2020
  • Cancelled Tuesday, October 6, 2020 at 4pm
  • 26 days before first sailing
• October 2020
  • Cancelled Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10am
  • 57 days before first sailing
• Mid-September 2020
  • Cancelled Friday, July 17, 2020 at 10am
  • 46 days before first sailing
• August/Early September 2020
  • Cancelled Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 9am
  • 39 days before first sailing
• July 2020
  • Cancelled Wednesday, May 20, 2020 at noon
  • 42 days before sailing

Looking back at these cancellations, the only thing resembling a pattern are cancellations most often occur on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Read more: Top 8 things repeat cruisers seem to say all the time

There appears to be no pattern to the time of day tends to favor before noon eastern, although there were a few that came in at the end of the day.

How many days before the first affected sailing also seems to not follow much of a pattern, unless you count "more than 26 days and less than 60 days" as a pattern.

The best takeaway I can determine from this data is Royal Caribbean cancels cruises when they come to a consensus that there is no chance for these cruises to occur.

Industry pattern

There is a different pattern for cruise cancellations that Royal Caribbean is absolutely following, and that is following other cruise lines.

When one of the top three mainstream cruise lines cancels a cruise, usually the other two lines follow with similar cancellations a few days or weeks later.

There has not been a pattern which cruise line starts first, but so far Carnival, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean have been following each other's leads when it comes to cancelling more cruises for the same duration of time.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) requires people on public transportation to wear masks, but what is the penalty if you don't comply?

If you don't wear a face mask on an airplane, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will fine you, but the Coast Guard will not do the same for cruise ship guests violating the new Federal rules.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) passed a new order that requires people to wear masks on public transportation, which includes aircraft, train, road vehicle, vessel or other means of transport.

Passengers who refuse to wear masks can be fined $250 for the first infraction and up to $1,500 for repeat offenses on airplanes, airports, passenger rail, or buses.

What about cruise ships?

The CDC order definitely includes cruise ships as part of the order, but the TSA does not cover cruise ships.

Enforcement of the CDC's order on cruise ships will fall to the U.S. Coast Guard, and it appears there will not be the same type of individual fines levied.

RoyalCaribbeanBlog reached out to the U.S. Coast Guard for clarification on fines for someone who goes on a cruise ship and tries to buck the cruise line rules by not wearing a mask.

A spokesperson for the Coast Guard provided a vague explanation that they intend to ensure cruise ships are enforcing the rules, but stopped short of saying they would fine passengers caught breaking the rules in a similar way that the TSA does.

The Coast Guard said that cruise lines must "use best efforts" to enforce the face mask rules, which includes:

• boarding only those persons who wear masks;
• instructing persons that federal law requires wearing a mask on the conveyance and failure to comply constitutes a violation of federal law;
• monitoring persons onboard the conveyance for anyone who is not wearing a mask and seeking compliance from such persons;
• at the earliest opportunity, disembarking any person who refuses to comply; and
• providing persons with prominent and adequate notice to facilitate awareness and compliance of the requirement of this Order to wear a mask; best practices may include, if feasible, advanced notifications on digital platforms, such as on apps, websites, or email; posted signage in multiple languages with illustrations; printing the requirement on transit tickets; or other methods as appropriate.

"Conveyance operators may be subject to civil or criminal penalties should they fail to make best efforts to take appropriate actions regarding non-compliant passengers on their vessels.

"Failure to implement a mask wearing program may result in control action taken by the COTP directing the movement and operation of a vessel."

"Additionally, if passengers refuse to wear a mask, operators may provide the persons with prominent and adequate notice to facilitate awareness and compliance of the requirement of this Order to wear a mask, and instruct the person that federal law requires wearing a mask on the conveyance and failure to comply constitutes a violation of federal law; and Vessel operators are directed to make best efforts to, at the earliest opportunity, disembark any person who refuses to comply."

"Repeated failure to impose the mask mandate could result in civil penalties and/or criminal action. The Coast Guard is also charged with enforcing CDC laws and regulations, failure to adhere to the CDC mask order may result in civil or criminal penalties issued by the Coast Guard on behalf of the CDC.

"The COTP may issue orders prohibiting vessels from mooring at a port facility that fails to implement the CDC mask requirements."

While the Coast Guard may not fine anyone like the TSA will, they do recommend the cruise line kick them off the ship as soon as possible.

In the CDC's order, the agency says that criminal penalties are an option, but thinks most people will comply.

"While this Order may be enforced and CDC reserves the right to enforce through criminal penalties, CDC does not intend to rely primarily on these criminal penalties but instead strongly encourages and anticipates widespread voluntary compliance as well as support from other federal agencies in implementing additional civil measures enforcing the provisions of this Order, to the extent permitted by law and consistent with President Biden’s Executive Order of January 21, 2021"

Royal Caribbean requires guests to wear face masks on its Quantum of the Seas sailings in Singapore, and its cruise contract for all guests clearly states guests must wear masks in most locations outside of the Passenger’s cabin while onboard, during embarkation, disembarkation and shore excursions.

Read more: Royal Caribbean adds COVID-19 into cruise contract for all passengers

The cruise contract goes on to say that if a passenger (or anyone in their traveling party) engages in noncompliance with new health protocols, they can be disembarked and reported to government authorities.

While Royal Caribbean tries to salvage the 2021 Alaska and New England cruise season, guests will have more time to make final payment.

In an effort to keep guests from canceling their cruise to Alaska or New England due to Canada's ban on cruise ships, the cruise line announced on Wednesday the final payment date will be reduced from 90 to 45 days.

Royal Caribbean's Senior Vice President, Sales, Trade Support and Service, Vicki Freed, told travel agents that the cruise line is working to figure out a way to legally sail cruises while skipping Canada, but in the meantime the final payment date will be reduced for these cruises.

"I know this was not news any of us wanted to hear, and we truly hope that your clients will stick with us as we work through this evolving situation."

"Therefore, we've made the decision to push the final payment due date for Alaska sailings and Canada sailings to forty five days before sailing so that we have more time to hopefully work through all of the challenges of getting back into service."

Specifically, the 45 day final payment date applies only for those sail dates that approach and reach the final payment date that will get it pushed to forty five days for final payment.

In addition to pushing back the final payment date, Royal Caribbean has offered guests options for changing their sailing or getting a refund:

• Leave their bookings as they are, and wait to see what happens. All final payment dates have been extended to just 45 days prior to embarkation day.
• Request a 100% refund of the amount they've paid, to the original form of payment, to be processed by June 30, 2021.
• Choose a 125% future cruise credit (for sailings booked by April 30, 2022, and departing through September 30, 2022). Credits will be issued by April 16, 2021.
• Select a modified Lift & Shift, allowing the reservation to be moved to the same date next year (plus or minus one week) on the same ship with the same itinerary.

Canada recently announced a year-long ban on cruise ships from its waters and ports until February 2022, which means Royal Caribbean cruise ships sailing from the United States are unable to offer cruises to Alaska or New England due to American cabotage laws.

Without access to Canadian ports, Royal Caribbean and other major cruise lines cannot sail without violating U.S. maritime law.

Last week, Royal Caribbean said it was still working through some ways it can still offer these cruises and has not cancelled any sailings.

Read more: Why hasn't Royal Caribbean cancelled Alaska 2021 cruises yet?

"At this time, we have decided not to cancel any sailings scheduled to visit Canada," the line said in a letter sent to travel advisors on Friday.

"It's our hope that your clients will maintain their existing reservations with us as we work with the government and CLIA on potential alternatives."

Royal Caribbean has not specifically said what those alternatives are, but there are a few different options they are exploring.

Read more: Congress members call Canada's ban of cruise ships "unacceptable"

Reducing the final payment date to 45 days is an option the cruise line has not exercised at all during the cruise shutdown. Instead, they have relied on the flexible cancellation terms under the Cruise with Confidence program to allow guests the choice of canceling after final payment for a future cruise credit.

With the 2021 sailings to Alaska and New England, many guests are leery of making a final payment for a cruise that seems very unlikely to occur.

Many aspects of the cruise experience are going to change, including the check-in process at the pier.

Between what has changed with Quantum of the Seas sailings in Singapore and comments from Royal Caribbean executives, we have known arriving at the cruise terminal was going to undergo significant changes to spread guests out and ensure everyone is healthy to board.

Royal Caribbean recently updated its online check-in process, and some guests who have cruises booked for May 2021 are seeing some of the changes listed.

RoyalCaribbeanBlog reader Leroyr55 shared a screenshot of the check-in process that lists a few notable changes.

Wellness check

Guests arriving on embarkation day have always been asked some common questions about their health, but that process is now much more elaborate.

The wellness check is part of your pre-selected check-in time at the cruise terminal.

"We’re doing everything we can to ensure our ships sail with healthy guests and crew by implementing wellness checks for all guests."

Your arrival time is also when you take your pre-cruise wellness check.

What exactly the wellness check entails remains to be seen, but Royal Caribbean's cruise contract indicates it will likely include:

• Providing an accurate, truthful and complete health questionnaire in a form
• Pre-embarkation testing and temperature checks of each passenger

Read more: Royal Caribbean adds COVID-19 into cruise contract for all passengers

Negative test required

Another major step is a negative covid test is required when you arrive to prove you have recently tested negative.

"We require all guests to complete SARS-CoV-2 (rtPCR) testing prior to sailing and bring the results to the pier prior to boarding."

Royal Caribbean committed to fully testing all passengers and crew in October 2020 (along with the entire cruise industry).

The check-in process does not indicate if the test taken before you arrive to the cruise terminal will be paid by the cruise line or by the guest, nor where they can get one done.

On-time arrivals

Another change is the check-in times matter.

Before the global health crisis, check-in times were never enforced, but now it appears that has changed.

"Your arrival time is also when you take your pre-cruise wellness check. Please plan to get to the terminal during that time window - not before or after - so you board smoothly."

You can get an arrival time by completing the online check-in before the cruise via Royal Caribbean's app.

Read more: Royal Caribbean says its app is required when cruises restart

The contract you agree to when you book a cruise now includes additional disclosures regarding COVID-19.

Royal Caribbean has updated its Cruise Contract with new language related to the current global health crisis at some point in the last few months.

Section 4 of the contract used to cover simply "medical care and other personal services" has been updated to now cover "public health, COVID-19 policies and procedures, knowing acceptance of the risks".

What is a cruise contract?

If you have been on a cruise before, you have agreed to plenty of other protocols and policies through Royal Caribbean's cruise contract.

Every cruise line includes this as part of the agreement you make when you book a cruise.  

Upon placing a deposit, Royal Caribbean adds a check box to indicate the guest has read through the Cruise Contract and agrees to everything inside.

Airlines also have something similar, known as the Conditions of Carriage, that cover almost every scenario a passenger can encounter to clearly indicate expectations of rules and penalties for violating those rules.

Here's what the revised section includes:

Recommended Consultation with Personal Physician

Passengers are encouraged to discuss going on a cruise ship for travel with their personal physicians and to review the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (“CDC”) website for updated
information.

Further, the passengers acknowledges, understands and accepts the risk of contracting COVID-19, influenza and/or Norovirus while on the ship, in the terminal, or on shore.

Furthermore, guests understand that there is a limitation in what Royal Caribbean can do to limit exposure and that that all risk cannot be eliminated.

"Passenger knowingly and voluntarily accepts these risks as part of this ticket contract, including the Risk of serious illness or death arising from such exposures, and/or all related damages, loss, costs And expenses of any nature whatsoever."

Agreement to Abide by Current COVID-19 Policies and Procedures

Passengers agree to comply with Royal Caribbean's health protocols at all times including pre-embarkation, while onboard, during port calls and shore excursions and/or final disembarkation.

These health policies are subject to change based on guidance and directives from established health authorities in the U.S. and other destinations where the Vessel
visits, including the CDC.

"Passenger’s agreement to abide by Carrier’s COVID-19 Policies and Procedures constitutes an integral part of this Ticket Contract."

COVID-19 Policies and Procedures

Royal Caribbean lists some (but not all) of the health policies to expect to follow:

1. Providing an accurate, truthful and complete health questionnaire in a form and containing any and all health or travel-related questions as required by Carrier in its sole discretion, for each Passenger prior to boarding
2. Pre-embarkation and/or periodic testing and temperature checks of each Passenger
3. Modified capacity rules for activities (including but not limited to restaurants, gyms, and entertainment events onboard and for shore excursions) which may limit or eliminate the ability of Passenger to participate in particular activities
4. Mandatory use by each Passenger (except where medically contraindicated) of face coverings in most locations outside of the Passenger’s cabin while onboard, during embarkation, disembarkation and shore excursions
5. Mandatory social distancing of Passengers at any/all times while on board and during embarkation, disembarkation, and shore excursions
6. Additional restrictions during shore excursions depending on local conditions, including but not limited to denial of disembarkation at destinations unless participating in only Carrier-approved shore excursions
7. Mandatory hand sanitizing by Passenger upon entry or exit of any public areas
8. Confinement of Passengers to cabins, quarantine or emergency disembarkation of Passenger if, in Carrier’s sole discretion, such steps are necessary to prevent or slow the spread of COVID-19
9. The required completion by Passenger in a timely manner of any written authorizations or consent forms required for Carrier to carry out its COVID-19 Policies and Procedures (including but not limited to medical information, medical privacy, or personal data privacy consent forms)
10. Other policies and procedures deemed by Carrier in its sole discretion to be necessary to reduce the risk of spread of COVID-19

Mandatory Compliance with COVID-19 Policies and Procedures

This section deals with noncompliance and ensuring everyone is following the rules onboard.

"Any noncompliance by Passenger or members of Passenger’s travelling party with Carrier’s COVID-19 Policies and Procedures or this Ticket Contract shall be grounds for refusal to board, refusal to reboard after going ashore, quarantine onboard the Vessel, disembarkation, reporting to governmental or health authorities, or other steps deemed necessary in Carrier’s sole discretion under the circumstances to protect the health and well-being of others."

If someone violates one of the COVID-19 Policies and Procedures, it is grounds for the passenger to not receive a refund or compensation of any kind.

Passenger will be responsible for all related costs and fines, including without limitation travel expenses and for proper travel documentation for any port, or for departure from or arrival to Passenger’s country of residence.

Passenger Testing Positive for COVID-19 Pre-Cruise

Within 14 days of the cruise beginning, if a passenger tests positive for COVID-19, exhibits signs or symptoms of COVID-19, has had close contact with a person confirmed or suspected as having COVID-19, Royal Caribbean reserves the right to deny boarding to that person.

In such a a situation, any passenger denied boarding because of a known or suspected infection with COVID-19 will be entitled to a refund or future cruise credit equal in value to the Cruise Fare Passenger paid to Royal Caribbean.

Passenger Testing Positive for COVID-19 During Cruise

If you test positive for COVID-19 or exhibit symptoms, Royal Caribbean may disembark, refuse re-boarding after a shore excursion, or quarantine Passenger as well as members of Passenger’s traveling party, or take other steps which Carrier determines, in its sole discretion, are necessary under the circumstances to protect the health and well-being of others. 

If that were to occur, you are entitled to a prorated refund or future cruise credit for the unused portion of the Cruise Fare.

Each such Passenger is responsible for all other related costs and fines, including without limitation travel expenses.

Old cruise contract language from November 2020

New cruise contract language from February 2021