It feels like we're at a crossroads right now with travel, and this week Len Testa joins me to discuss what the future may hold for travel and cruises in the coming year.
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When cruise ships restart sailings, they will have sweeping new health protocols and policies that are unmatched in the rest of the travel industry.
Perhaps no other industry is taking as many precautions and adopting new rules in order to protect the health of its customers and workers than the cruise lines.
While the airlines have adopted some new rules to keep its passengers safe, new cruise line health protocols are going to greatly exceed those basic safeguards.
Of course the experience on a cruise ship is not exactly the same as on an airplane, nonetheless, the cruise industry is going above and beyond the new health protocols airlines have adopted that claim to be safe for flying.
The basic step airlines took to socially distance its passengers was to leave the middle seat open on its airplanes (a step most airlines are about to get rid of), but cruise ships are going to leave up to half of their rooms unsold to foster social distancing.
When cruise ships restart operations, they will not come close to filling their cruise ships. One of the health protocols that the Healthy Sail Panel proposed, and adopted by the cruise industry, is to limit how many passengers are able to go on a cruise ship in order to allow for appropriate physical distancing on board.
The exact percentage of a ship's capacity that will be reduced will depend on the size and design of each cruise ship, but when Quantum of the Seas restarts cruises in Singapore in December, Royal Caribbean will reduce the capacity to no more than 50% occupancy.
In fact, the first Quantum of the Seas sailing will only have about 1,000 passengers onboard a ship that can regularly handle 4,905 guests.
In addition, other forms of social distancing will be enforced, including reduced capacity at dining and other public venues, staggered embarkation and check-in and the addition of more options for entertainment such as additional show times to allow for social distancing.
While many airlines quickly adopted leaving the middle seat open as a policy, a number of airlines have either removed or plan to remove that policy. At one time, Frontier Airlines announced it would charge passengers a fee, starting at $39, to ensure the middle seat next to them would remain empty.
If you go on a flight today, you can walk right into the airport, through security and onto your airplane without any tests. Cruise ships have promised to test every single person and crew member.
All lines that are members of the Cruise Lines International Association have committed to 100 percent testing of all passengers and crew prior to embarkation on ships that carry more than 250 passengers.
One of the goals of the Healthy Sail Panel is to make being on a ship as safe as or safer than being in your own home town.
The onboard medical care offers guests and crew members daily temperature checks, fast and free SARS-CoV-2 testing capabilities onboard, and complimentary in-stateroom medical evaluations.
Royal Caribbean has also added more doctors and nurses in their shipboard Medical Centers and enhanced its state-of-the-art equipment to provide high quality care.
No other section of the travel industry has 100% testing, which separates Royal Caribbean (and other CLIA member lines) from the rest of travel.
Modern airplanes maintain clean air by circulating a mix of fresh air and air recycled through HEPA filters. Royal Caribbean says its HVAC system continuously supplies 100% fresh, filtered air from outdoors to all indoor spaces.
The air is drawn from one side of the ship for cooling and ventilation, then removed via exhaust on the opposite side of the ship.
This continual intake of fresh air replaces the air in any space, with a total air change up to 12 times an hour in staterooms, and about 15 changes an hour in large public spaces.
Upgraded MERV 13 filters capture aerosols 0.3 to 1 micron in size — fine enough to filter coronavirus, colds and flu.
Since March, the cruise industry has had to answer to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and faced an uphill battle for proving it can operate safely. The airlines have encountered no such government restrictions.
For many months, the CDC shut down the cruise industry while airlines were able to continue operating unabated and with no new rules imposed by the government.
Only recently has the CDC provided a new pathway for cruises to receive permission to cruise again, assuming each cruise ship can demonstrate it can function in a safe manner under a series of strict checkpoints and requirements.
The framework for conditional sailing is meant to potentially allow cruise ships to sail again while not putting the public health at risk.
Both airlines and cruise lines have committed to cleaning surfaces, but cruise ships will ensure they have medical grade cleanliness onboard.
Airplanes treat their planes with antimicrobial technology that can disinfectant surfaces onboard.
Cruise ships have also adopted new cleaning standards to ensure every ship is thoroughly cleaned and disinfected prior to every voyage, and consistently and frequently throughout a sailing.
Royal Caribbean has said frequently touched areas like elevators, escalators, stairways, and promenades will be cleaned every two hours and gangway rails every 20 to 30 minutes during busy times.
Staterooms are cleaned daily only while guests are out of the room, and particular attention is paid to frequently used items and surfaces. Hospital-grade disinfectants are used daily to clean all high-touch surfaces.
Like on airplanes, touchless Purell hand sanitizer and wipes dispensers are available for use by guests.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) believes going on a cruise ship is among one of the riskiest forms of travel during the current global health crisis, but has turned a blind eye to air travel and the complete lack of testing, distancing, or protocols to stem the spread of COVID-19.
Over the weekend, the CDC raised its warning about going on a cruise ship to the public to the highest level possible. Meanwhile, Thanksgiving holiday travel is beginning to peak and the CDC has held airports and airlines to no strict protocols.
While the cruise industry remains completely shutdown in North America with impossibly high standards instituted by the CDC, neither airports nor air travel have had any shutdown or forced regulation related to health protocols.
Crowds at Sky Harbor: The day after the CDC recommended people cancel their Thanksgiving travel plans, #azfamily viewer Ed Westerfield caught this scene of passengers waiting at their gates pic.twitter.com/r9gIhWlbek
— Max Gorden (@Max_Gorden) November 21, 2020
This double standard perfectly exemplifies how cruise lines are being unfairly targeted by the CDC, while air travel has faced no such restrictions despite being chiefly responsible for the spread of COVID-19 from continent to continent and country to country.
While the CDC did urge Americans to stay home for the holiday, millions will still fly around the United States and there are no stringent regulations placed on airports or airlines like there are for cruise ships.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL SURGE: Americans are ignoring the CDC's calls not to travel for Thanksgiving.
— CBS Evening News (@CBSEveningNews) November 23, 2020
Health experts warn that the estimated 50 million Thanksgiving travelers will send the deepening COVID-19 crisis into an even faster -- and deadlier -- tailspin.@krisvancleave reports pic.twitter.com/ct0z7Hizv6
CBS News reporter Kris Van Cleave said more than three million have been screened at Transportation Security Administration checkpoints since Friday. Sunday was the busiest day at airport checkpoints since March 16, and AAA expects up to 50 million Americans to travel.
Meanwhile, cruise ships remain unable to operate until the CDC signs off on a cruise ship demonstrating it can operate in a completely safe environment. Cruise lines are committing to 100% testing for all passengers and crew, enhanced HVAC and air circulation, and a multi-faceted approach to mitigate the risk of spread on a cruise ship.
In the executive summary from the last No Sail Order, the CDC Director warned cruise ship travel should not occur because it would facilitate the spread of the virus.
If unrestricted cruise ship passenger operations were permitted to resume, infected and exposed persons disembarking cruise ships would place federal partners (e.g., Customs and Border Protection and the U.S. Coast Guard), healthcare workers, port personnel, and communities at substantial unnecessary risk.
The same concern regarding cruise ship travel is affecting air travel without any of the safeguards.
Royal Caribbean will not sell any cruises longer than 7-nights until further notice in order to comply with new rules by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
The CDC's Framework for Conditional Sailing Order stipulates that cruises longer than 7 nights and call on a U.S. port are not allowed while the CSO is in effect.
Therefore, Royal Caribbean sailings between Jan. 1 and Nov. 1, 2021 are "temporarily paused" while Royal Caribbean determines what to do with them.
The cruise line informed travel agents on Tuesday of the change, "To ensure compliance, we have temporarily paused the sale of such cruises as we evaluate options and determine the necessary itinerary updates or changes."
More information about the fate of these sailings will be coming "in coming weeks" once Royal Caribbean has an update to share.
Vicki Freed, Royal Caribbean's Senior Vice President, Sales, Trade Support and Service, touched briefly on the subject, "The eight-night cruises right now are on hold on pause from January 1st to November 1st, 2021. So we're still re-evaluating the whole situation."
RoyalCaribbeanBlog.com first reported last week that cruises longer than 7-nights had disappeared from the cruise line website for booking.
The specific rule in the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order clearly forbids cruises longer than 7-nights while the order is in effect.
"The cruise ship operator must not sail or offer to sail on an itinerary longer than 7 days. CDC may shorten or lengthen the number of days permitted to sail based on public health
considerations and as set forth in technical instructions or orders."
Royal Caribbean cruises do not typically exceed 7-nights in North America, but there are longer sailings to be found, especially repositioning cruises and sailings to more exotic locations. In addition, many cruises from the Northeast United States tend to be longer because of the time needed to travel to the warmer Caribbean waters.
In the brief update, Royal Caribbean did not indicate what changes would be made to these existing sailings, and if they would be shortened or cancelled.
Other cruise lines have pulled the plug on longer sailings already.
Carnival Cruise Line was one of the first cruise lines to remove sailings longer than 7-nights from its website. Princess Cruises and Holland America Line have also done the same while they seek clarification on how to deal with this regulation.
Princess Cruises issued a statement regarding the change, "While we await further information, we have (temporarily) stopped selling all cruises eight days and longer which call upon a U.S. port and depart January 1 through November 1, 2021."
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) raised its warning on Saturday to avoid going on any cruise ship because of "very high level of COVID-19".
The warning has gone from Level 3 to a Level 4 warning, and recommends avoiding any cruise ship (including river cruises) around the world. "because the risk of COVID-19 on cruise ships is very high."
The CDC's 4-level system categorizes destinations, including international destinations and United States Territories, into the following four levels:
In addition to avoiding going on a cruise, anyone that does go on a cruise is recommended to get tested 3-5 days after your trip AND stay home for 7 days after travel. Even if you test negative, stay home for the full 7 days.
New Level 4 warning
Previous Level 3 warning
If you do not get tested, then the CDC recommends to stay at home for 14 days after the cruise completes.
The CDC has warned the public against taking cruises since March due to the global health emergency, but has steadily increased its warnings from an alert, to a watch, to a warning and now simply a "Very High Level of COVID-19".
In order to raise a warning to Level 4, it has to have an incidence rate of more than 100 cases per 100,000 people over past 28 days.
The new warning is described as the CDC recommending avoiding any cruise ship, anywhere in the world, because the risk is "very high".
The CDC also noted people with an increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19 avoid cruise ships.
Moreover, the agency says anyone with a cruise booked should reschedule their cruise to a future date.
If you do go on a cruise, the CDC makes the following recommendations:
While the level 4 warning was issued today, the framework for a phased resumption of cruise operations is still in effect.
In late October, the CDC lifted the No Sail Order cruise ship ban and replaced it with the Conditional Sailing Order for Cruise Ships.
The CSO has three main phases:
These phases are subject to change based on public health considerations and cruise ship operator's demonstrated ability to mitigate COVID-19 risk.
The entire cruise industry has adopted a broad new set of health protocols that exceed the rules and regulations imposed by other sectors of travel, such as calling for 100% testing.
The Healthy Sail Panel that created these new rules is chaired by Governor Mike Leavitt, former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Recommendations include testing, the use of face coverings, and enhanced sanitation procedures on ships and in terminals.
The Healthy Sail Panel identified five areas of focus every cruise operator should address to improve health and safety for guests and crew, and reduce the risk of infection and spread of COVID-19 on cruise ships:
In each category, the Healthy Sail Panel created practical and actionable recommendations to address specific safety concerns. Among the recommendations are key strategies such as:
Furthermore, the CDC has been made aware of the panel and even invited to observe the planning and creation of procedures.
Royal Caribbean's Public Health & Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Calvin Johnson, spoke to travel agents on Wednesday about what the cruise line has to do in order to obtain approval to start sailing again.
In a webinar, Dr. Johnson spoke about what the new “framework for conditional sailing” order by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) means, and what steps are required to be completed.
Dr. Johnson said the first phase of the framework is to establish a baseline for cruise lines and their ships to demonstrate that the ships are free of the virus onboard.
Another step is the requirement to have simulated voyages, that allow Royal Caribbean to test the new protocols that are going to be put into place.
Dr. Johnson and his team worked very hard in order to take the Healthy Sail Panel's 74 recommendations and turn them into cruise line specific rules for any sailing.
"The way that we at a Royal Caribbean group have moved to operationalize those has been through creating very, very specific and detailed operational protocols, how we will do things as a cruise line in order to make sure that we're focusing on those safe aspects and those elements that will help make cruising safer."
Dr. Johnson said these operational protocols fall into five large categories:
1. Prevention: What you do up front to make sure as best you can to keep the virus from ever even getting on the ship.
"Being one hundred percent in keeping virus out of anywhere is is a daunting task and may not happen. But what you can do is minimize the risk of a virus spreading it."
2. Mitigation efforts: What do you do if the wind virus is on board? How quickly can you identify it?
"How do you identify them? How do you identify those who they may have been in contact with? How do you contain them and then get them to the appropriate level of care, isolating them from being able to to spread or infect others and ultimately inappropriately getting them off the vessel and into the appropriate level of care, whether that is just quarantining or isolating at home or in a hotel or if they're sick and getting them to hospital and appropriate medical care."
3. Protecting the destinations: How do we ensure that we're protecting the destinations and those nations in those ports that we that we sail to?
"We don't want to bring any illness or disease or risk to our partners. That requires and working on on both on both ends, their responsibility and our responsibility to ensure that we're creating a safe environment for all involved."
4. Mobilization: How do you effective and appropriately then get folks to the care that they need?
5. Validation: How do you ensure that they're actually being done properly and actually making a difference?
In going through those five key areas, Dr. Johnson said Royal Caribbean came up with over 122 specific protocols to move towards safer sailing.
"One hundred twenty two protocols and actually almost three hundred specific policies added on, in addition to to what we already had some policies improved to change."
Dr. Johnson also echoed a sentiment shared by other Royal Caribbean Group executives that cruises will only begin when the cruise line feels it is safe to do so, and there is no rush back.
"That means not going back to sailing before we're ready to go back to sailing, not going back to sailing before we feel it is is safe to do so."
Dr. Johnson was asked about his thoughts on some of the amazing trial results two different vaccines have reported recently.
Dr. Johnson said the vaccines have a long history of being "transformative in terms of both health, health care and public health," and thinks what is currently happening with the trial vaccines is "an incredibly exciting time".
"The fact that vaccines have we've gotten to this point in terms of vaccine development... is very, very encouraging."
"Those protections and processes that have been in place for vaccines in the past, still looking to ensure through the data that that these vaccines that are moving forward now are, in fact, safe and effective."
He added that there is still more information we can learn in the last phase of the vaccine development that we should pay close attention to, "to ensure that these vaccines continue to be safe and that their effectiveness seems to continue to be such that they will have an impact on limiting the severity and the duration of this illness."
Carnival Cruise Line announced today it has cancelled all sailings into February, and even some into March, but Royal Caribbean has no plans yet to match those dates.
Nearly as soon as Carnival Cruise Line made the announcement it would cancel all of its sailings through January 31, 2021 and select cruises in February and March, many cruise fans were wondering if Royal Caribbean would do the same.
Carnival announced it would extend its cancellation for all vessels through at least January 31.
In addition, Carnival canceled all sailings out of Baltimore; Charleston, South Carolina.; Jacksonville, Florida; Long Beach, California; Mobile, Alabama.; New Orleans; and San Diego through the end of February.
Sailings out of Tampa on the line’s Carnival Legend were canceled through March 26.
During a webinar with travel agents, Royal Caribbean's Senior Vice President, Sales, Trade Support and Service Vicki Freed said there was no decision made
"At this point in time, we've only canceled sailings through the end of December."
"We're staying very fluid with the situation. And if we do need to cancel, we will certainly give everybody a heads up. But right now it's just through the end of December of 2020."
Royal Caribbean's current global cruise suspension expires at the end of December (except for Quantum of the Seas in Singapore), with a January 1, 2021 date to resume operation for the majority of the fleet.
Since the cruise industry have shut down operations in March, the "big three" cruise lines of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Group have had a tendency to match each other with cruise cancellation announcements. While this pattern is far from an absolute guarantee, it has been the dominant pattern.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lifted the No Sail Order at the end of October, but replaced it with a complex road map for cruise lines to follow if they wish to restart operations.
There are multiple phases to restart, which include preparing ships now to ensure they are free of any virus, conducting test cruises, and applying for a Conditional Sailing Certificate.
None of these steps is simple or quick, and it could take many more weeks or months to go through all the steps.
Royal Caribbean has not provided any kind of guidance of how long they estimate it may take before cruises resume, but executives have been insistent that they will take their time in order to get it right.
Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain has said they want to have a good plan in place before starting back up.
"We have said that we're not sure when we're coming back. We won't come back until we're absolutely sure that we've done everything we can to work to protect the safety of our guests and crew."
"We will work with the authorities. We will work with all the experts that we have asked to help us on this, to make sure that we are doing everything we can to protect our guests and crew."
While no official announcement has been made, many Royal Caribbean cruises longer than 7-nights from the United States have been removed from being available to book on its website.
Over the weekend, a number of RoyalCaribbeanBlog readers reported while the 8-night or longer cruises they have booked are still showing in their online account, searching for these sailings is impossible on Royal Caribbean's booking site.
While closed for new bookings, these cruises are not cancelled at this time. Existing reservations on these longer itineraries remain valid at this point.
When viewing Royal Caribbean's website, if you select any American port and try any date prior to late November 2021, no results are found. This apparent change does not seem to affect European sailings, or 2022 cruises.
All of the cruises longer than 7-nights have not been removed yet. Three 12-night Southern Caribbean cruises remain available in November and December 2021, and there are ten 8-night cruises still listed in December 2021.
One of the requirements of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Framework for Conditional Sailing Order is to limit cruises to no longer than 7-nights.
"The cruise ship operator must not sail or offer to sail on an itinerary longer than 7 days. CDC may shorten or lengthen the number of days permitted to sail based on public health
considerations and as set forth in technical instructions or orders."
In conducting spot checking of a few cruises, I could not locate these sailings for booking on Royal Caribbean's website:
Once again, Royal Caribbean has not announced any new cancellations related to these 7-night cruises, nor if the longer sailings would be shortened to adhere to the CDC rules.
Sailings longer than seven nights from U.S. homeports are showing as available to book as of November 2021, when the CDC's new Framework for Conditional Sailing is expected to expire.
UPDATE: Vicki Freed, Royal Caribbean's Senior Vice President, Sales, Trade Support and Service, told travel agents on Wednesday that 8-night cruises between January 1 - November 1, 2021 are on hold.
"The eight-night cruises right now are on hold on pause from January 1st to November 1st, 2021. So we're still re-evaluating the whole situation."
If Royal Caribbean is about to alter or cancel cruises longer than 7 nights in 2021, it is not the first cruise line to do so.
Earlier this month, Carnival Cruise Line also removed cruises from its website from the U.S. that were longer than a week without any announcement.
Royal Caribbean shareholders have started their week on a positive note thanks to excellent COVID-19 vaccine news.
Royal Caribbean (RCL) shares jumped by almost 10% on Monday (it closed up almost 7% at the end of trading) after pharmaceutical company reported its vaccine tests showed 94.5% effectiveness.
The good news spurred all cruise line stocks to spike even before the market opened.
Moderna's results are on top of last week's Pfizer's results that showed its vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective.
Moderna says about 20 million doses will be available in the United States by the end of this year, and have between 500 million a 1 billion doses worldwide in 2021.
The company says it will apply for Emergency Use Authorization with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration within the coming weeks.
During Moderna's late-stage trials, 15,000 study participants were given a placebo, which is a shot of saline that has no effect. Over several months, 90 of them developed COVID-19, with 11 developing severe forms of the disease.
Another 15,000 participants were given the vaccine, and only five of them developed COVID-19. None of the five became severely ill.
Moderna says its vaccine did not have any serious side effects. A small percentage of those who received it experienced symptoms such as body aches and headaches.
The vaccine is not only more effective than Pfizer's vaccine, but it can be stored for up to six months when stored at standard freezer temperatures of -4 degrees Fahrenheit, compared to the -94 degree temperatures required for the Pfizer vaccine.
Both vaccines are using messenger RNA, or mRNA to produce an immune response in the vaccine.
The mRNA vaccine approach uses genetic material called mRNA to trick cells into producing bits of protein that look like pieces of the virus. The immune system learns to recognize and attack those bits and, in theory, would react fast to any actual infection.
While the cruise industry's attempt to restart operations does not rely on a vaccine, it certainly will do nothing but help their cause.
Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain spoke on Monday about the "transformational" progress being made on the vaccine front.
"The most at risk Americans will be vaccinated first, and then it will spread throughout our population."
"I noticed that Dr. Fauci said he believes that any American who wants one will be able to get an inoculation by April of next year. That's exciting news."
While it waits for a vaccine, the cruise industry will rely on a multi-faceted approach to mitigate risk by relying on social distancing, reduced ship capacity, and 100% testing of everyone onboard.
A United States Senator and Representative sent a joint letter to the head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) asking them to reinstate the ban on cruise ships from the United States.
The Senators felt obliged to act following a high profile situation developing with a small luxury yacht cruise line that encountered a few passengers testing positive for COVID-19 while onboard.
U.S. Representative Doris Matsui (D-CA) and Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) sent the letters after seeing the SeaDream 1 cruise ship report about 5 positive cases a few days after the ship departed Barbados.
The letter was sent to CDC Director Robert R. Redfield, and implored him to bring back the cruise ship ban.
"We write with urgent concern surrounding recent reports of multiple confirmed positive COVID-19 cases on board the first cruise ship to carry passengers in the Caribbean since countries around the world imposed strict limitations on operations in mid-March."
The Senators feel the time is simply not right for cruises to restart with the pandemic still a major threat across the United States, and around the world.
"The order set out a seemingly robust and phased approach to restarting cruise line operations, but we have serious concerns that – even with the additional requirements and standards – cruising is simply unsafe during a global pandemic."
At the end of October, the CDC lifted the No Sail Order ban on cruise ships, and replaced it with the Framework for Conditional Sail Order (CSO), which set up a series of requirements for cruise lines to meet before getting approval to sail again.
On Wednesday, SeaDream Yacht Club announced that a passenger on board one of its ships had preliminarily tested positive for COVID-19. Last night, reports confirmed several other cases aboard the ship and that at least five people aboard have tested positive for coronavirus after undergoing additional screening.
Cruise industry insider Stewart Chiron called the letter "uninformed, political grandstanding", noting the enormous double standard the cruise lines are held to while so many other aspects of travel and life in the United States are completely unregulated for COVID-19 concerns.
More uninformed, political grandstanding! That's exactly what we don't need! I don't recall their outrage when over 500 people at a Las Vegas resort tested positive for COVID in September. https://t.co/gzNnogVFwW
— Stewart Chiron (@CruiseGuy) November 13, 2020
Senator Blumenthal took to Twitter as well to share his concern that cruises returning have fulfilled, "our worst fears."
Multiple COVID-19 cases on the first cruise ship in the Caribbean fulfills our worst fears. They’re a compelling reason for the CDC to reverse course & restore its no-sail order. Bon voyage is very bad policy.https://t.co/o71Ophcgsm
— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) November 13, 2020