The Miami-Dade Tourism and the Ports Committee met on Thursday to discuss the opening plan for cruise lines, and placed much of the blame on cruises not restarting on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

The Board of Commissioners met in a virtual meeting, along with representatives from Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Norwegian and MSC cruise lines.

Vice Chairwoman Rebeca Sosa opened the meeting by pointing out the double standard of other industries being able to reopen while the cruise industry has not due to the CDC.

"While other industries have been allowed to reopen in phases, the cruise industry remains totally shut down. In April, the CDC gave the cruise industry seven days to come up with a lay-up plan, and the cruise industry worked tirelessly and gave them the plan in seven days. The CDC took 14 weeks to somewhat respond to the plan that was presented."

"They cannot wait another 14 weeks to get some feedback from the CDC. The cruise lines will need immediate engagement and action from the CDC in order to reopen."

Ms. Sosa spoke about the fact the cruise lines have been diligently working on plans, with no response or feedback from the CDC.

"The problem is that's not fair, that the CDC is not paying attention and communicating with the cruise industry on the plans that they are created so they can tell them this is right, this needs more work, so they can be prepared."

Royal Caribbean: "We're ready"

Royal Caribbean International President & CEO Michael Bayley also addressed the meeting, praising Miami officials for the support they have provided.

"If it hadn't been for the assistance that Juan and the Port of Miami provided Royal Caribbean, we would have struggled enormously with all of our guest and crew repatriations and the ongoing provisioning of our ships, which are all over the Caribbean."

Mr. Bailey spoke about how much the cruise industry contributes to the local economy, and the work Royal Caribbean is doing to get back to sailing.

"As the previous speakers have recognized, the cruise industry is truly vital to the Florida economy, contributing over eight and a half billion dollars in direct spending.

"We have been working over the past several months on the creation of a universal set of guidelines that dovetail and fit into the work that's being created by our panel, and ultimately our collective submission to the CDC.

"So we're very optimistic that we will be able to return to service. We're certainly better prepared today than we were yesterday, and we believe we will be better prepared for tomorrow."

Mr. Bailey summed up his comments with this statement, "It's time that the cruise industry returned to service and we're ready."

Royal Caribbean waiting to submit cruise restart plan

Mr. Bailey did clarify for the panel that Royal Caribbean had not yet submitted their plan for restarting cruises to the CDC. He said it would it submitted in the coming weeks.

"That plan has not been submitted to the CDC as of today. Our intention is to have that plan submitted in the coming weeks. And it corresponds with the request for information that the CDC opened up for public comment, which concludes on September the twenty first."

Ms. Sosa reiterated the need for the CDC to act quickly once the plan is submitted, and not to take a long time to respond, as they did in the spring.

"I'm going to speak from my heart. It's impossible to understand why they don't respond to at least work together to make sure that the last plan that is presented is the right one and to make sure that they don't do what they did before that they waited 14 weeks to respond to a plan."

Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain spoke to travel partners in a new video, offering optimism and insight during the continued cruise shutdown.

Sporting a new haircut, Mr. Fain started out by saying he feels "more positive" that the end of this period of no cruises may finally be coming to an end.

"Today, I'm beginning to feel more positive that we may be within sight of the end," Mr. Fain stated. "We're certainly not at the end, and we certainly have quite a ways to go...ut the pace of change has accelerated. Many positive developments are really beginning to bear fruit."

Later in the video, he added, "We are in sight of the downward slope. Like everything about this disease, it's a rocky slope. But we're getting closer to the other side of this crisis every day, and I'm excited about that."

Mr. Fain emphasized that while the virus cannot be eliminated, the goal now is to "control the spread to a manageable limit". He sees three tools for achieving this: better treatments, better testing and a vaccine.

"It's important to remember that the vaccine won't be an instantaneous fix. However, when we look at all these things, all these developments holistically, they combine to give us a very good hope for a normal future relatively soon."

Healthy Sail Panel update

Mr. Fain touched on the work the Healthy Sail Panel is doing, which is a combined effort between the Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Holdings.

Chaired by Governor Mike Leavitt and Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the panel is working on coming up with policies and procedures for both cruise companies to employ to keep guests safe.

Mr. Fain characterized the work being done thus far as being "pleased", especially with the work being done by the panel members.

"They have been thorough, they have been focused, and they have been engaged. They've devoted an amazing amount of time and effort to the project, and I've been blown away by their commitment."

In an example of the work, Mr. Fain explained how the panel tackled how ventilation systems work on a cruise ship. 

The panel engaged experts in conducting testing. where they developed testing protocols, set up the equipment and evaluated the results over a few weeks.

In the end, the panel was able to provide a scientific answer to Royal Caribbean's HVAC system.

Australia has extended its ban on cruise ships entering Australian waters until mid December.

The ban, which includes overseas travel, was announced on Thursday by Australia's Federal Health Minister, Greg Hunt.

An emergency period of the Biosecurity Act of 2016 will be extended until December 17, 2020. It was previously set to expire on September 17.

The order encompasses restrictions on overseas travel, the entry of cruise ships into Australia, the supply and sale of certain essential goods and retail stores at international airports.

"The extension of the emergency period was informed by specialist medical and epidemiological advice provided by the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC)," according to a statement from Mr. Hunt.

"The AHPPC has advised that the international and domestic COVID-19 situation continues to pose an unacceptable public health risk," he said.

The announcement by the Australian government follows Royal Caribbean's decision a week ago to cancel all of its cruises departing from Australia and New Zealand on or before October 31, 2020.

Royal Caribbean's new list of health recommendations for keeping guests and crew members safe onboard was expected by the end of August, but the new policies will not be released until some time after the CDC open comment period ends.

The Royal Caribbean Group assembled a blue ribbon panel of health experts, known as the Healthy Sail Panel, which are tasked with guiding Royal Caribbean with new recommendations on how to start cruising again safely.

When the Healthy Sail Panel was announced in early July, the timeline for the getting the first set of recommendations to Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings was by the end of August 2020.

"The panel hopes to provide initial recommendations to the cruise operators by the end of August."

RoyalCaribbeanBlog reached out to Royal Caribbean for clarification on when the new policies might be released, and a statement provided by Royal Caribbean International's Public Relations department said they are now waiting for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) open comment period to conclude.

“The Healthy Sail Panel is working diligently on recommendations for cruise health and safety. The CDC’s open comment period ends on September 21 and the panel is taking that additional time to do its work.”

In late July, the CDC began taking comments from the public that it says it will be used to inform future public health guidance and preventative measures relating to travel on cruise ships.

The CDC has been steadily sharing comments it has received on its website that include a wide array of responses, ideas, and commentary.

Who is the Healthy Sail Panel?

The joint venture between Royal Caribbean and Norwegian has assembled health experts that come from many different backgrounds and experiences working with or for the U.S. government.

Serving at the head of the new panel will be Governor Mike Leavitt, former Secretary of the U.S. Department Health and Human Services (HHS), and Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Nine other experts serve on the panel, with expertise in public health, biosecurity, epidemiology, hospitality and maritime operations.

The panel will work alongside Royal Caribbean's new Public Health & Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Calvin Johnson, who will lead the company’s public health initiatives and oversee our response to health crises. 

Read more:All the health policies Royal Caribbean has confirmed or hinted once cruises resumes

Royal Caribbean Group stockholders have seen a nice bump this week in the cruise giant stock price, thanks in part to good news of a new COVID-19 test.

Abbott Laboratories announced on Thursday a "fast, $5, 15-minute, easy-to-use COVID-19 test" that has resulted in a two-day rally for cruise line stocks.

Royal Caribbean Group ($RCL) closed on Friday up 5.30%, at a closing price of $70.13. Share prices have been rocketing up since Thursday morning's announcement.

Fast and cheap testing

On Wednesday, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) to Abbott for its BinaxNow COVID-19 Ag Card. 

The test costs $5, involves just a nasal swab, and results can be delivered in 15 minutes without any special equipment.

In addition to being cheap and fast, it is easy to use since the BinaxNow COVID-19 Ag Card works in concert with NAVICA, a new application for iPhone and Android devices that gives people with negative tests an encrypted digital health pass.

Theoretically, a cruise line like Royal Caribbean could insist guests take the test before admitted on a cruise by using the app.

According to Abbott, around 2.9% of patients taking the test receive a false negative when they're actually infected. About 1.5% of people who are not infected will receive a false positive. 

Abbott is manufacturing BinaxNow COVID-19 Ag Cards at scale in two new U.S. facilities. The company will begin shipping the test cards in September and expects to deliver at a rate of 50 million tests per month by October. 

Testing part of the strategy

While full details have not yet been released, Royal Caribbean has said COVID-19 testing is likely to occur.

Royal Caribbean International CEO Michael Bayley recently commented that testing is going to be one aspect of the protocols to expect onboard.

"Testing is part of the thinking that we have not yet reached a point in our protocols where we're ready to publish and release for for discussion," Mr. Bailey started, "But it's very likely that testing will occur."

The winning combination

Taking into account Abbott's testing, along with a slew of new vaccine news, Wall Street seems to think the dual-pronged approach that addresses developing a vaccine as well as preventing infection is a good sign for the cruise lines.

A pair of new vaccine candidates from VBI Vaccines was also announced on Thursday, joining a field of other vaccines in various stages of testing.

In short, the more news about promising and effective testing and vaccines, the more positivity the market is showing cruise lines might get back to business sooner than later.

Note: Matt Hochberg has no position in any of the stocks mentioned, nor does he own any cruise line stock.

Royal Caribbean Group announced it will cancel all sailings departing from Australia and New Zealand on or before October 31, 2020.

In addition, Royal Caribbean suspended China itineraries on Spectrum of the Seas through the end of September and Quantum of the Seas through October 1, 2020.  

The announcement made on Thursday morning in Australia matches the cancelled cruise status in North America and Europe.

Royal Caribbean issued a statement that the decision to cancel cruises in Australia was made out of a necessity for safety.

The health and safety of our guests, crew, and the communities we visit is our top priority. As we work with health and government authorities toward this shared goal, Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Cruises will be extending the suspension of sailings to include those departing from Australia and New Zealand on or before October 31, 2020. We will be reaching out to our guests and travel partners to share further details and address any questions or concerns they may have.

The announcement comes weeks after Royal Caribbean Group executives hinted there was a chance cruises could resume first in Australia.

Royal Caribbean International CEO Michael Bayley noted that while cruise operations are suspended until November, Australia and China are the exceptions.

"It may well be possible that we'll resume operations in China and potentially Australia before the end of October."

Mr. Bayley was quick to add that "there's some possibility" of it happening, but far from a certainty.

Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain shared a new video where he spoke with the cruise giant's new Global Head, Public Health and Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Calvin Johnson about Royal Caribbean is doing to tackle the challenges ahead with COVID-19.

Dr. Johnson was introduced in late July as the first Chief Medical Officer for Royal Caribbean Group, where he will be responsible for will tackling the needs of the global health and wellness policy, manage its public health and clinical practice, and determine the strategic plans and operations of its global healthcare organization.

Dr. Johnson started off by giving an update on what is new in testing, therapies, and vaccines.

"While vaccines are not an overnight bullet, they certainly are a game changer in terms of protecting us and protecting the individual," Dr. Johnson explained. "There are a number of vaccine candidates that are in what's called clinical trials."

"And those are the the scientific studies and tests of safety and their effectiveness that go through a few different phases to see and make sure that, one, they won't hurt people when they're taking their effectiveness."

"And two, that they'll be effective in getting our body to to generate an immune response to protect against, in this case, the coronavirus. "

Advances in testing

In addition, the important of testing was emphasized by Dr. Johnson, "testing is actually a very important tool in terms of coronavirus, both in terms of diagnosing it and in terms of helping us to contain the spread."

Mr. Fain specifically mentioned a new saliva test, which he feels will be a "game changer" for enabling fast and easy testing.

"This new test we're hearing about this ability to do it based on saliva, that will really be a game changer because it's fast, it's easy, and allowed to do so many tests that we can really get this thing under control. Some people calling it a suitable vaccine"

Dr. Johnson also seemed excited about this new test, "This saliva... test is one where it's not very invasive to to get it....And we expect it to be increasingly accurate over time."

Cruises starting up again

Dr. Johnson also spoke about the efforts Royal Caribbean is making to get back to cruising, while keeping things as safe as possible for guests and crew.

Under his leadership, Dr. Johnson will be in charge of keeping 75,000 crew members and 4-5 million guests per year.

He believes technology will be an important tool to assess health status, and gather data.

"Another area, Richard, is analytics and using that that data in a way that really informs us about how we can improve and be more efficient, whether it's our public health inspections or whether it is again delivering direct care, all focused on preventing illness primarily, but certainly recognizing it early and preventing those negative outcomes."

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) removed from its website a 14 day quarantine recommendation for anyone returning to the United States following traveling internationally.

TravelPulse reported the change in policy based on the CDC's website now recommends that people, “Follow state, territorial, tribal and local recommendations or requirements after travel.”

Since the early days of the global health crisis, the CDC had added travelers quarantine themselves for 14 days after going out of the country, but that has changed at some point last week.

While the quarantine recommendation may be dropped, cruise ships are still the subject scrutiny, as traveling on a cruise ship is still listed as one of the "higher risk" activities one can take in regard to going to areas with high levels of COVID-19. The CDC has lumped in cruise ship travel with other higher risk activities such as attending a sporting event, being in a crowded restaurant, going to a large social gathering or being in an area of the world experiencing high levels of COVID-19.

"You may have been exposed to COVID-19 on your travels. You may feel well and not have any symptoms, but you can be contagious without symptoms and spread the virus to others. You and your travel companions (including children) pose a risk to your family, friends, and community for 14 days after you were exposed to the virus."

Many states have their own protocols in place for mandating quarantine following travel to or from those states, including Connecticut, New York and New Jersey. Massachusetts requires anyone coming into the state to provide a negative COVID-19 test upon arrival or agree to self-quarantine for 14 days.

In addition, the CDC advocates wearing a mask when outside, hand washing and keep a sharp eye out for COVID-19 symptoms.

While Royal Caribbean cruisers are waiting to see what new health policies the cruise line will come up with, we are getting a preview of what might be an example of one new policy with MSC Cruises.

MSC Cruises resumed cruising in Italy on the MSC Grandiosa, and a family was denied reboarding after they deviated from their cruise line approved shore excursion in Naples, Italy.

The unnamed family was not allowed to re-board after breaking their “social bubble" and leaving the shore excursion.

MSC Cruises laid out a series of new rules and protocols aimed to keep guests safe onboard the ships, as well as prevent the spread of COVID-19.

During this initial phase of operations MSC requires guests only go ashore as part of an organized MSC Cruises’ excursion.

A spokesperson for MSC said the family was not allowed back onboard the cruise ship because they had separated from the organized group trip to go exploring on their own, therefore posing a possible risk to others on the ocean liner amid the ongoing outbreak of COVID-19.

"In line with our health and safety protocol, developed to ensure health and wellbeing of our guests, crew and the communities we visit, we had to deny re-embarkation to a family who broke from their shore excursion yesterday while visiting Naples, Italy," the MSC Cruises spokesperson said on Wednesday. "This family broke from the 'social bubble' created for them and all other guests, and therefore could not be permitted to re-board the ship."

The MSC Grandiosa departed Genoa on Sunday night for a seven-night cruise of the western Mediterranean, with port calls in Civitavecchia, Naples, Palermo and Valetta, Malta.

The Grandiosa's current sailing is the first cruise in the Mediterranean by a major cruise line and vessel since the cruise industry shut down earlier this year.

Royal Caribbean has not yet announced its health protocols

Royal Caribbean has not announced its new health policies and protocols yet, but the cruise line did promise to deliver them by the end of this month.

Royal Caribbean Group teamed up with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to form a panel of health experts who are actively working on generating a set of recommendations that both cruise lines can use to keep guests safe.

Ultimately, the panel will work through all the options and practices considered, and come up with the best course of action for the cruise lines.

If you still have a Royal Caribbean cruise booked for the end of 2020 or sometime in 2021, your best bet is to not cancel the cruise on your own.

There is plenty of concern among cruisers about if their upcoming cruise will actually sail, as well as if they even want to go on a cruise during the current global health crisis. While preemptively cancelling a cruise may seem like a good decision now, you might still want to hang on, even if you know you do not want to cruise.

This article is about why you should wait for at least Royal Caribbean to cancel the cruise before you pull the trigger on cancelling it.

You might regret it later

There are two reasons why you might regret cancelling a cruise down the line.

Financially, you are better off waiting for Royal Caribbean to cancel your cruise than for you to cancel your cruise.

From the beginning of the cruise shutdown, Royal Caribbean has offered far more favorable terms to guests who have their sailing cancelled by the cruise line, than if they opt to cancel.

The classic example is anyone who cancelled before the cruise line and had to settle for just a future cruise credit, instead of the option to get a full refund. 

Moreover, if Royal Caribbean cancels on you, you can qualify for 125% future cruise credit, which is a bonus not otherwise available.

The other reason why you might regret cancelling a cruise later is if you cancel and many months down the line you want to rebook.

Things are changing every day in terms of the cruise line's plans, as well as approaches and treatments for COVID. While things might look not-so-great today, perhaps in Spring 2021 the situation will be very different.

While you might be able to change your mind later and rebook the same sailing, there is a good chance someone else will have booked the cabin you had booked, which means finding a new room available.

You have non-refundable cruise fare

A common reason for cancelling a cruise is to get a cash refund, but if you booked non-refundable cruise fare you can qualify for a cash refund minus the change fee penalty.

If you take advantage of the Cruise with Confidence program and cancel your cruise in exchange for a future cruise credit, you will not be able to get a cash refund at all.

However, if Royal Caribbean cancels your sailing later on, you can choose to get a 100% cash refund, even if you have a non-refundable cruise fare.

You can cancel up to 48 hours before your cruise begins

There is little risk in waiting to cancel. Even if Royal Caribbean were to resume cruises and you decide you prefer not to sail, the Cruise with Confidence program.

This means you can wait and see what happens, and decide at anytime until 2 days before your cruise begins to actually cancel for a 100% future cruise credit.

This kind of flexibility means you do not have to make a decision now, and take advantage of the best information available closer to your sail date.

What if Royal Caribbean goes bankrupt?

I have heard from some cruise fans they are worried Royal Caribbean will not be able to survive the extended cruise shutdown, but there is quite a bit of time before a bankruptcy scenario could occur.

In Royal Caribbean's second quarter earnings report, as of June 30, 2020, the Company had liquidity of approximately $4.1 billion all in the form of cash and cash equivalents. A few weeks later, Royal Caribbean announced it has secured a new $700 million term loan facility.

Most Wall Street analysts believe Royal Caribbean Group has enough cash on hand in order to survive until at least the end of 2021 with no income.

All of that points to the likelihood of a bankruptcy forfeiting your balance with the cruise line to not be a consideration anytime soon.